While most sports betting players will pay attention to skill players, the best ones know that many games are won and lost in the trenches, where the offensive and defensive lines battle for any edge they can get. These battles will be the key factor in New York’s trip to San Francisco for the NFC championship game, and the nod goes to the 49ers.
What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, January 22nd, 6:00 PM ET
Where: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -2
Why Bet On New York Giants (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS)
The Giants may have taken advantage of a Green Bay team that looked rusty and hadn’t taken any meaningful snaps in a few weeks, but New York still had to use their chances in a 37-20 win at Lambeau Field, their second win in Green Bay in four postseasons. Eli Manning was 21-of-33 for 330 yards, three touchdowns and a pick, and the Giants’ signature play from this game will be Hakeem Nicks’ 37-yardHail Mary touchdown at the end of the first half to put them up 20-10. On offense is where the Packers really looked rusty as their receivers couldn’t catch the ball, but perhaps they were hearing footsteps as the Giants’ defense was in their face all day long, forcing four turnovers. End Osi Umenyiora benefitted from the double teams that were sent to Jason Pierre-Paul as he had two of the Giants’ four sacks and a forced fumble. That was as good as you could play on the road against a team that was 15-1 and coming off the bye, and the Giants never let up, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to seal the deal.
There are no major injuries to report for the Giants heading into this game, and you really have to give it to head coach Tom Coughlin, who comes under fire every year, but he has had the Giants prepared for the last few weeks when their season has been on the line. When they won the Super Bowl four years ago, it came with three straight road wins. It’s very possible that they could do it again.
Why Bet On San Francisco 49ers (14-3 SU, 8-0-1 ATS)
NFL betting lines had the 49ers as underdogs at home against New Orleans, but head coach Jim Harbaugh had his boys prepared and it was an all-around team effort in a 36-32 win over the Saints. Alex Smith was 24-of-42 for 299 yards and three touchdowns with no picks, which was two fewer than Drew Brees and his 28-yard scoring run with 2:11 left will be a lasting memory of the 49ers’ season, whether they win or lose this game. San Francisco also minimized their chances for turnovers with a running game that racked up 143 yards on just 22 carries. The defense did give up 32 points, but they also forced five turnovers (three fumbles and two picks) out of a New Orleans offense that had been incredibly stingy when it comes to turnovers. They shut down the Saints’ running game to the tune of 37 yards on 14 carries, and the 49ers sacked Brees three times. One of those came from tackle Justin Smith, who was in the New Orleans backfield on seemingly every play and he may have been the player of the game if not for Smith or tight end Vernon Davis, who had seven catches for 180 yards and a pair of scores, including a game-winner with nine seconds left that will go down in San Francisco history.
Running back Frank Gore (leg) is a worry, along with receiver Ted Ginn (leg), so watch the injury report this week, although we expect both players to be in action. Gore is the larger worry because the 49ers have to be able to run the ball against the Giants or else New York’s front four will have full license to tee off on Smith. However, they have one of the best offensive lines in the game and that’s going to be a monster matchup to watch during the NFC championship game.
How It Will Play Out
San Francisco is a 2-point favorite at home over the Giants, who are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the 49ers, with three games going over the posted total. This will be the eighth playoff meeting for these two and the first since 2002, when the 49ers pulled out a 39-38 thriller in the wild-card round, and San Francisco is now 4-3 SU in their postseason meetings with the Giants.
The 49ers also won their Week 10 meeting with New York by a score of 27-20 at home, and turnovers were the difference as the Giants had two to one for San Francisco. This game should also be a close one and it’s going to come down to line play on both sides of the ball. The 49ers get the edge in both matchups and that’s why they’ll barely cover the online betting spread to win the NFC.
Giants 49ers Betting Pick: San Francisco 49ers