What: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Preview
Where: Churchill Downs
When: Saturday, November 5th
The mile high club will all be there in force as a full sports betting field will line-up for the $1 million Dirt Mile and those with no speed can feel confident since the winner of this race last year, Dakota Phone, came from dead last as the longest shot on the tote.
With Twirling Candy retired and Uncle Mo entered here but more likely to head to the Classic, this event immediately becomes a case of what have you done for me lately?
The first logical runner to think about is the one that just chased Mo in the Kelso and that’s Jackson Bend, trained by Nick Zito. Easily a clear second in the Kelso, the distance is no concern as this guy won a $400,000 stakes early in his career going a mile and a sixteenth. Anything close to a repeat of his 112 Kelso Beyer, and the rest could be in big trouble.
Jersey Town pushed fast splits in the Kelso and will benefit by Mo’s absence but he still will have his online wagering work cut out.
Todd Pletcher’s student Aikenite may opt for the Sprint and will have to try to build on his third in the Grade 1 Forego but he lost a heart breaker in his last when nostrilized in the Grade 3 Phoenix at Keeneland on October 7. The colt has a nice turn of late foot, has won at Churchill and he will come into the race relatively fresh.
Trappe Shot can be his own worst enemy since he has limited speed, but he is capable of running fast enough to post a Beyer big enough to win this race. Considering his style, online sports enthusiasts should demand value to take a swing.
When you are hot, you’re hot and Wilburn is hot. He has won three in a row, has handled any kind of going, has a nice stalk and pounce style, and the feeling is he has not reached his peak. Proven at Churchill in a sloppy route, he is improving and is the kind of runner that could take some beating.
Eight furlongs just may be ideal for Caleb’s Posse. He’s a Grade 1 winner, he showed his class beating Uncle Mo in the Kings Bishop, is proven at this distance and longer and he was troubled in his only poor effort this year.
Fox News and Billy O’Reilly fans have a vehicle in The Factor, a Bob Baffert trainee who is an all or nothing type of a Breeder’s Cup betting runner that has won 4 of 7 lifetime but ran out of the money 3 times.
He opened up the year winning the Grade 2 San Vicente, made his mark on the Triple Crown by taking the Rebel, but had to be rested after running poorly in the Arkansas Derby. In his last race, it could have been a case of going too fast to early as he set a :21, :43 4/5 pace and had nothing left.
This guy may prove tough to catch.