Free pick : Boston Red Sox  +100

Boston has been a play for us in 4 of the past 5 games and they are making us money. As a team they are more healthy now than at any other time this season and we believe that they are going to make a huge run in the Al East divisional race and the Al Wilde Card over the remainder of the month.

Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 75-43 making 26.8 units since 2004.

Play on any team with a poor defensive catcher allowing 0.85 + SB’s/game on the season and after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less. Boston is a stout 14-2 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team winning between 51% to 54% of their games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Toronto has not done well against teams like Boston posting a 12-28 (-18.1 Units) record against the money line when facing teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Boston starter is in a near perfect spot noting he is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Take Boston

Free pick : Tampa Bay Rays -120

Tampa Bay as they take on Toronto set to start at 7:07 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Tampa Bay will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-16 making 30.2 units since 1997.

Play on all favorites in August with a money line of -110 or higher and is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 and now facing a good AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA <=4.20.

Rays are in a series of strong positions sporting a 41-14 (+16.7 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season this season. Rays are just 24-10 (+11.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. Since becoming the manager of the Blue Jays, Gaston is just 46-79 (-38.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game.

Free pick : Atlanta Braves  (-1.5 ) +130

Kris Medlen is on fire. He is 5-0 (12-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.84 this season, including a perfect 2-0 at home (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.84.

The Braves have won his last 10 starts with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey is struggling. The Mets have dropped his last 5 starts with 4 of those losses coming by at least 2 runs. The Braves are a perfect 6-0 in Medlen’s starts against teams with a winning record this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 5.2 to 2.8.

Take the Atlanta Braves on the run line.

Free pick : Atlanta Braves -130

Atlanta finds themselves in the road Favorite role on Wednesday as they play at Washington. The Braves start ace right hander, Time Hudson on the mound, who’s 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA this season.

Hudson is even more impressive when facing this Washington squad, as he owns a 9-1 record (with 5 No Decisions) with a 1.51 ERA against them during his career and has impressively held them to 1 Earned Run or less in an incredible 11 of 15 games! In his last trip to the mound against them back on June 28 he went 7 innings without allowing an Earned Run and recording 6 Strikeouts during a 5-0 victory.

Free pick : Los Angeles Angels +115

The Halos are showing good value in the underdog role tonight considering the edge they have on the mound with Santana, who is carrying an ERA of just 2.79 on the road this season. He has been a strong underdog bet, winning 10 of his last 13 when valued as a pup. The Rangers send Feldman and his 4.78 home ERA to the rubber.

The Rangers are 1-4 in Feldman’s last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 1-6 in his last 7 starts vs. the American League West and 1-7 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Angels are an impressive 21-6 in their last 27 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and the Rangers are just 1-5 in their last 6 game 3′s of a series.

Bet on Los Angeles Angels

Free pick : Minnesota Twins -155

Minnesota has a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Carl Pavano over Kevin Millwood. Pavano is 11-6 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.032 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He has been even better on the road in 9 starts away from home, going 5-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Millwood is 2-8 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in 18 starts this season. The righty has really imploded over his last 3 starts, posting an 11.45 ERA and 2.364 WHIP. Millwood has allowed 14 earned runs and 26 base runners in 11 innings in those 3 outings.

If those numbers from Millwood aren’t bad enough to have you sold, then the fact that he is 0-8 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in 13 career starts vs. Minnesota should do the trick. Pavano is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 8 career starts vs. Baltimore. Pavano is 46-19 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. The Twins are 39-13 in their last 52 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Baltimore is 19-57 in their last 76 games following a loss. Minnesota is 7-1 in Pavano’s last 8 starts.

Bet the Minnesota Twins

Free pick : Chicago White Sox -125

The White Sox send John Danks to the hill knowing they are very likely to get a solid outing. That’s all they will need when facing this Seattle offense that has scored more than 4 earned runs just once in their last 10 games.

Chicago has taken all 4 meetings this season from the Mariners and the Sox have now won 13 of their last 20 road games. In his career Danks has been solid against the Mariners on the road allowing just 9 earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. His last 2 starts here resulted in back to back single earned run efforts in 8 innings of work.

Seattle has dropped 8 of their last 9 home games and Doug Fister has been pounded as of late. He’s permitted 23 earned runs in his last 32 innings of work.
Bet on Chicago White Sox.

Free pick : New York Mets +107

On Friday the free play is on the New York Mets. Game 956 at 7:10 eastern. The Mets have won 4 of 5 vs the Braves this season. The Mets are 10-3 off a day off this year and 9-4 on Friday.

Atlanta is just 5-9 on the road in this range this season. Atlanta hits just .237 vs Division games. In the pitching matchup the Braves have T. Hanson on the mound and he has been hit hard over his last 3 starts with a 8.99 era.

The Mets counter with knuckle baller RA. Dickey. Dickey has a 1.33 home era and has given teams fits so far this season. The Braves are in first place. However they are not a strong road teams and may struggle with Dickey and his knuckler.

Look for the Mets to take game one of the series.

Free pick : Texas Rangers (-1.5 ) -120

I’ll take the Rangers on the run line tonight when you consider Baltimore is 0-13 the last 2 seasons in Guthrie’s starts against AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season.

The Orioles are losing in this situation by an average score of 2.8 to 7.5. The O’s have lost 6 of Guthrie’s last 7 starts with all 6 of those losses coming by at least 3 runs. Meanwhile, Hunter has been terrific for the Rangers this season.

They have won all 6 of his starts by at least 2 runs. Plus, Baltimore is just 1-19 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. The O’s are losing in this situation by an average score of 2.8 to 6.7.

Take Texas on the run line.

Free Pick : Total UNDER 8 – 115

This game has the makings of a pitcher’s duel tonight in Washington. Clayton Richard and Livan Hernandez each spot sub-3.00 ERA’s. Richard is 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA this season, and 3-1 with a 2.29 ERA on the road.

The UNDER is 4-0-2 in Richard’s 6 road starts this year. Hernandez is also 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA this season, and 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA at home.The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Hernandez’s 16 starts this year, including a perfect 8-0-1 UNDER in his 9 home starts.

Take the UNDER 8  runs here.